CS2 skin price prediction: what Valve changed in item supply

Valve has changed how Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) items reach players several times: the weekly drop list, the Armory, the Major Shop and trade rules. The dated changes are below.

The list runs from March 2025 to Valve’s July 28, 2026 post about the Cologne 2026 Major stickers. For prices and market events, see the skin market calendar and the CounterStrikeGO Skin Index.

Dated changes at a glance

The weekly care package drop list

Valve has changed the weekly care package drop list more than once. In the March 31, 2025 update, three new weapon collections joined the list: Ascent, Boreal and Radiant. Valve wrote that the collections held over 70 new finishes in styles from solid colors and gold reliefs to camo patterns and custom paint jobs.

The Jan. 21, 2026 update changed the list in both directions. Valve added two all-new weapon collections, Harlequin and Achroma. It removed four: Safehouse, Dust 2, the 2018 Nuke Collection and the 2018 Inferno Collection.

The Armory

• March 31, 2025Valve added the Fever Case, with 17 weapon finishes from community contributors and Shattered Web knives in Chroma finishes. The Train collection also received a revamp with designs inspired by the map’s graffiti and location.
• Oct. 1, 2025Valve added the Missing Link Community Charms collection (23 charms from Counter-Strike Workshop artists) and the Dr. Boom Charms collection (22 charms). It also added the 2025 Community Stickers collection (29 stickers) and the Sugarface 2 Stickers collection (nine stickers). Gallery Case, Graphic Collection and Character Craft stickers were removed from the Armory.
• July 8, 2026Valve added two weapon collections, Arabesque and Spy Tech, and two sticker collections, Fruits & Vegetables and Auto Racing.

Valve has also added Limited Edition Items to the Armory: the XM1014 | Solitude in the March 31, 2025 update and the AK-47 | Aphrodite in the Jan. 21, 2026 update.

Special collections and Dead Hand Terminals

On March 11, 2026, Valve introduced the Dead Hand Collection. It has 17 finishes from community contributors and 22 all-new gloves, which Valve called “rare special items.”

Players can purchase Dead Hand Collection items from Dead Hand Terminals. Valve wrote that the terminals are available as a possible weekly drop.

Major items and the Cologne 2026 Shop

Valve renovated the Major Shop for the Cologne 2026 Major. Its May 21, 2026 post said players could now get any sticker directly, “at prices set by demand.”

How the token system works

Players buy tokens and redeem them for any sticker. Valve explained the pricing in its post: when lots of players buy a particular sticker, its price goes up and other sticker prices go down. Valve’s FAQ adds that all sticker prices update after a large number of stickers are sold. Prices in tokens are the same for everyone worldwide.

A refund rule covers price drops after redemption. If the price of a redeemed sticker decreases by 25 tokens or more within 24 hours, Valve automatically refunds tokens for the difference between the redemption price and the lowest price in that period. Refunds are credited to the token balance after one week.

Some purchase rules apply:

1. Tokens cannot be pre-purchased. Players buy the exact number needed, with a minimum of 100 tokens, which is $0.99 USD.
2. Sticker purchases are final and cannot be refunded.
3. If you cancel before activating tokens, those tokens can be refunded. After activation, they stay in your balance and can be redeemed for something else.

Souvenirs

The Souvenir-O-Matic lets players craft their own Souvenir. You take any normal or Souvenir quality weapon, select a completed match and one of its players, and get the weapon back in Souvenir quality with gold team, autograph and map stickers. Any existing stickers on the weapon are removed first. The conversion is permanent.

Valve wrote that souvenir prices depend on two factors: the demand for the specific gold team and autograph stickers involved, and the rarity of the weapon chosen.

Ranked Series stickers

On July 28, 2026, Valve shipped the Ranked Series stickers, which show a team’s final standing in the design. Valve wrote that the original dynamic pricing system “didn’t produce reasonable prices.” The Ranked stickers have a lower price, with the same relationship between players and teams as the Event Series stickers as of that update.

Valve wrote that the Cologne 2026 Shop would be available until Sept. 29, 2026.

No capsules this time

Valve’s FAQ says team and player autograph stickers shipped in capsules in the past. Valve cited feedback that players might prefer to buy stickers directly and wrote that players in certain regions cannot purchase sticker capsules.

Royalties

As with previous Majors, 50% of tournament item sales are shared with the tournament organizer, teams and players. Valve wrote that this time the rates depend on performance. Until the end of the Major, token sale royalties followed the teams’ Valve Regional Standings (VRS) seeding; after the Major, they follow the final standings. In Valve’s chart, the tournament organizer receives 5.0% and position 1 receives 2.85%.

Trade rules

With Premier Season Three on July 15, 2025, Valve introduced trade reversal. If you lose control of your account or are the target of a scam, you may reverse all Counter-Strike item trades from the last seven days.

You can review recent trades and find the reversal feature on the Trade History page of your Steam account.

FAQ

Does Valve change which collections drop weekly?

Yes. On Jan. 21, 2026, Valve added Harlequin and Achroma to the Weekly Care Package drop list and removed Safehouse, Dust 2, the 2018 Nuke Collection and the 2018 Inferno Collection.

How are Cologne 2026 sticker prices set?

Valve wrote that sticker prices depend on relative demand. If one sticker is bought disproportionately more than another, its price goes up and the other’s goes down.

Can I undo a Counter-Strike item trade?

Valve wrote that you may reverse all Counter-Strike item trades from the last seven days if you lose control of your account or are the target of a scam. The feature is on the Trade History page of your Steam account.

Where do Dead Hand Collection items come from?

Valve wrote that you can purchase Dead Hand Collection items from Dead Hand Terminals, which are available as a possible weekly drop.