Case odds: the drop rates Perfect World published for CS:GO in China
The probability table Perfect World posted for CS:GO in China, dated Sept. 11, 2017: grade ratios, StatTrak chance and percentages for 15 container categories.
Perfect World, which operates CS:GO in China, published a page titled 概率公示 (“probability disclosure”) on the game’s Chinese official site, dated Sept. 11, 2017. It lists the rules behind its drop chances and the resulting percentages for 15 categories of containers.
This guide translates that page. Every figure below is Perfect World’s, published for CS:GO in China, and the percentages are copied as the page gives them.
Grade names on the page
The page uses Chinese names for item grades. This table matches them to the English names used in the game.
| Chinese | English |
|---|---|
| 消费级 | Consumer Grade |
| 工业级 | Industrial Grade |
| 军规级 | Mil-Spec |
| 受限 | Restricted |
| 保密 | Classified |
| 隐秘 | Covert |
| 极其罕见的特殊物品 | Extremely rare special item |
| 高级 | High Grade |
| 卓越 | Remarkable |
| 奇异 | Exotic |
| 非凡 | Extraordinary |
The rules behind the numbers
Perfect World lists a short set of rules and says the percentages are calculated from them:
- If a container can give the extremely rare special items, the ratio of a special item to a Covert item is 2:5.
- For Covert and lower grades, the ratio of one grade to the next lower grade is 1:5.
- Different items of the same grade have the same chance.
- If a container can give StatTrak items, the chance that an item is StatTrak is 1:10.
- When a weapon case holds both Mil-Spec and Industrial Grade items, the ratio of Mil-Spec to Industrial Grade is 5:24.
The page says all CS:GO probabilities currently follow these rules and that Perfect World will announce any future change. It also links to an in-game list of prize winners on the Chinese site.
Category 1: weapon cases that need a key, and the 毁灭之手 terminal
The page groups key-opened weapon cases with the terminal it calls 毁灭之手 (literally “Hand of Destruction”).
| Grade | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.923% |
| Restricted | 15.985% |
| Classified | 3.197% |
| Covert | 0.639% |
| Extremely rare special item | 0.256% |
Categories 2 to 6: Major souvenir packages and map collection packages
These categories are Major souvenir packages that differ by which grades they contain. Category 6 also covers map collection packages. A dash means the grade is not part of that category.
| Category | Contains | Consumer | Industrial | Mil-Spec | Restricted | Classified | Covert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Consumer, Industrial, Mil-Spec | 80.537% | 16.107% | 3.356% | – | – | – |
| 3 | Industrial, Mil-Spec, Restricted | – | 80.000% | 16.667% | 3.333% | – | – |
| 4 | Consumer to Restricted | 80.000% | 16.000% | 3.333% | 0.667% | – | – |
| 5 | Consumer to Classified | 79.893% | 15.979% | 3.329% | 0.666% | 0.133% | – |
| 6 | Consumer to Covert | 79.872% | 15.974% | 3.328% | 0.666% | 0.133% | 0.027% |
Categories 7 to 13: sticker capsules, patch packs and music kit box sets
These categories cover capsules and patch packs by the sticker grades they contain. Category 13 covers capsules that contain stickers of only one grade, or music kit box sets, in which every item has the same chance.
| Category | Contains | High Grade | Remarkable | Exotic | Extraordinary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | High Grade, Remarkable (capsules, patch packs) | 83.333% | 16.667% | – | – |
| 8 | High Grade, Remarkable, Exotic (capsules, patch packs) | 80.645% | 16.129% | 3.226% | – |
| 9 | Remarkable, Exotic (capsules) | – | 83.333% | 16.667% | – |
| 10 | High Grade to Extraordinary (capsules) | 80.128% | 16.026% | 3.205% | 0.641% |
| 11 | High Grade, Exotic (capsules) | 96.154% | – | 3.846% | – |
| 12 | High Grade, Remarkable, Extraordinary (capsules) | 82.782% | 16.556% | – | 0.662% |
| 13 | Stickers of one grade only, each item has the same chance (capsules, music kit box sets) | 53.333% | 26.667% | 13.333% | 6.667% |
Category 14: Armory Pass
The page splits this category into two groups of items.
The first group is named on the page as 迷链挂件, 袖珍武器挂件, 元素手作印花, 角色手作印花, 爆炸博士挂件, 迷链社区挂件, 极速印花, 果蔬印花 and 2025社区印花.
| Grade | Chance |
|---|---|
| High Grade | 80.128% |
| Remarkable | 16.026% |
| Exotic | 3.205% |
| Extraordinary | 0.641% |
The second group is named on the page as 死亡游乐园2024, 平面设计收藏品, 狩猎运动收藏品, 谍影收藏品 and 蔓藤纹收藏品.
| Grade | Chance |
|---|---|
| Industrial Grade | 80.026% |
| Mil-Spec | 16.005% |
| Restricted | 3.201% |
| Classified | 0.640% |
| Covert | 0.128% |
Category 15: the 创世纪终端机 terminal
The last category is the terminal the page calls 创世纪终端机 (literally “Genesis terminal”).
| Grade | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 80.128% |
| Restricted | 16.026% |
| Classified | 3.205% |
| Covert | 0.641% |
The page closes by urging players to play in moderation, spend rationally and beware of scams.
FAQ
How likely is a StatTrak item?
For containers that can give StatTrak items, Perfect World’s rules put the chance that an item is StatTrak at 1:10.
Do all items of the same grade have the same chance?
Yes. The page says that different items of the same grade have the same chance of being obtained.
What is the chance of a Covert item from a key-opened weapon case?
In Perfect World’s Category 1 table, Covert is 0.639%, and the extremely rare special items are 0.256%.
Will my own results match the percentages?
The page says the percentages are statistics from large samples and can differ from the small number of results a single player sees.
Where does this table come from?
It comes from the 概率公示 page on CS:GO’s Chinese official site, run by Perfect World and dated Sept. 11, 2017. The page says Perfect World will publish any future changes.